Before writing this year’s mule deer forecast, I pulled out MuleyCrazy’s March/April 2007 issue to read what I had compiled last year. Now, I don’t want to be egotistical and say we hit the nail on the head perfectly, but it was pretty darn accurate forecasting when you consider all the variables. In a nutshell, last year’s success on great bucks was good in the higher mountain regions. However, in much of the southwest, the success on 200-inch class bucks was terrible. Nevada, southern Utah, Arizona, central and southern New Mexico, and Sonora were all regions that suffered severely from dry spring conditions in 2007.

~  Looking Ahead To 2008  ~

To say the least, the winter of 2007/2008 has brought significant changes that will make forecasting the 2008 hunting season difficult. For instance, we have all been praying for good moisture for decades……and now we have it! I’m sure right about now, many of you are saying, “Isn’t that good?” Well, just like the old saying, there really is too much of a good thing! Piles of snow and a month-long stretch of brutal, sub-zero temperatures have many deer herds in the northern states being threatened with severe die-offs. And although many state agencies responded quickly by implementing feeding programs to lessen the overall impact, most of these areas will undoubtedly lose deer. In fact, some biologists are predicting a similar winter kill to the 1992/1993 season––the worst winter loss in the last 20 years! Just as exactly how devastating the loss will be is all speculation at this point and we probably won’t know much until winter counts a year from now. The sad fact is that we will lose deer and although most will be young fawns, unfortunately the older age classed bucks that approach winter time in poor condition from heavy rutting activity, will also be in dire straights.

On a brighter note, most of the southwest is looking great. Great moisture in December, followed by consistent storms in January and February have laid the foundation for good antler growth for the first time since 2005. Heavy new snow has piled to record levels and some areas are 160 % of normal for this time of year. I would say the stage is set for a fantastic year in the southwest portion of mule deer country.

~  ARIZONA  ~

The 2007 season goes down in my book as the worst year for banner bucks in the 30 plus years that I have followed the sport. The Arizona Strip units that have always been the Holy Grail for big muley's, experienced an extremely tough year. From December 2006 to July 2007 the Strip had the driest year in history and despite seeing four whopper bucks while scouting myself, the brutal truth unfolded on the general hunts. Of the 130 permit holders on the Strip, only five lucky hunters broke the magical 200-inch mark. The good news for guys sitting on a ton of points is two fold; first, the great moisture we have received to date will ensure better antler growth, and second, many diehard hunters left the Strip with unfilled tags due to a “holding out for a monster” mentality.

What about the Kaibab Plateau? Each year the Kaibab is slowly getting better. The Warm Fire of 2005 opened up a bunch of thick timbered country on the top of the plateau and these burn areas will continue to produce some of the better bucks. We heard about nine different 200-inch class bucks harvested from the Kaibab during the 2007 season. Eight of these giants were taken on the late season hunts. However, does this necessarily make the Kaibab a better choice to burn your points? Not really. You need to keep in mind that the Kaibab has over 2000 permits and if you did the math, you would realize the odds are darn slim of you being the lucky hunter smiling over a big buck.

What’s new for 2008 in Arizona? Once again the rumors are all about limiting archery permits on all mule deer units north of the Colorado River. Units 12A, 12B, 13A, and 13B will be under review at the Arizona Game and Fish commission meeting in April. Early data showed recommendations for all of the above mentioned units to be placed into a draw system with preliminary numbers being announced at 1850 permits for the Kaibab and 100 permits for both 13A and 13B. However, actual permit numbers will be derived after local biologists inform the commission of current management plans. Nothing is set in stone as of the printing of this issue and in fact all decisions won’t be final until the commission meets in April. Opposition has still been strong by local archery groups to keep over-the-counter tags, but it is my opinion that the Kaibab and Strip units will only continue to falter if the archery tags are not controlled in these units.

~  CALIFORNIA  ~

California is a tough state to get excited about, even if you are a resident. In the central/eastern portion of the state, the Goodale unit has commonly produced the biggest bucks. However, the draw odds are tougher than drawing an Arizona Strip tag. Along the eastern edge of the state the X-Zones provide slightly better draw odds while still retaining the chance of shooting a nice buck. It should be noted that California also has several good muzzle loader hunts in the X-Zones. They season dates are great, if you are willing to hunt with a smokepole.

Some trophy deer still exist in the crossover “Black-tail / Mule deer” zones on the west slope of Lasson National Forest in the C-Zones. Although most good bucks are harvested on private ground, rough terrain with little access above the private can provide a great place for a hunter willing to walk. Despite the fact California does produce a handful of 200-inch class bucks it is still not a state that a non-resident should spend much time dreaming about, unless you have some local knowledge to assist in your efforts.

~  COLORADO  ~

Colorado is still leading the game when it comes to opportunity for trophy-class mule deer, (with strong emphasis on the word “opportunity”). No other western state has multiple units that can be drawn with just a few points, that can still provide a quality experience, and that holds a great likeliness of harvesting a quality buck. With that being said, unfortunately Colorado is also one of the states that will be negatively affected by the harsh winter. In addition to the units in northwest Colorado, units 53, 54, 55, 521, 66, and 67 of the Gunnison Basin will undoubtedly have some winterkill. The Colorado Division of Wildlife (CDOW) and groups like the Mule Deer Foundation (MDF) and Colorado Mule Deer Association (CMDA) have been feeding deer in the Basin since late January hoping to minimize the overall loss of mule deer. The CDOW have already planned to reduce tags in units affected by winterkill and hunters with significant points should pay attention before applying for one of these areas.

Despite one of Colorado’s strongest producers of trophy class deer having problems, the rest of the state is looking good. Units along the western edge of Colorado have faired well and still hold good amounts of mature bucks. Units 21, 30, 40, 44, and 61 are all good units. Other units that have a great puncher’s chance are: 41, 42, 421, 62, 64, 70, 71, 74, and 75. Many of these units have an ever-growing population of deer and they can be drawn with just a few points.

In the center of the state several units have been maturing into trophy status. In the last two years, several of the best bucks harvested in Colorado have come from units that have been extremely easy to draw. Units 4, 5, 15, 35, 45, 50, 501, 77, 78, and 771 are just a few of the units that should not be overlooked. Keep in mind, huge tracks of private lands in some of these areas are a big part of the reason these units have been easy to draw.

From Wyoming to New Mexico, Colorado’s eastern plains are still a great place to look for that buck of a lifetime. All of the plain’s units are primarily private property and many of them are leased by outfitters. Wide open prairies with great hiding places along river bottoms provide perfect habitat for bucks to grow old. These bucks are fairly predictable and the key to success is finding the right piece of property. Great moisture should ensure the plains will be responsible for several of 2008’s best bucks, however, any hunters interested in hunting the plains need to do a ton of research before heading east.

When trying to decide on which hunt to try for in Colorado, keep in mind that many of the second rifle seasons have overlapping elk hunts that will undoubtedly lessen your chances of finding a good buck. As a general rule of thumb, third season rifle tags are the best chance for a bruiser in Colorado. However, the muzzle loader hunts and the few early season September rifle hunts should never be overlooked. 

~  IDAHO  ~

As I stated last year, the Idaho Department of Fish and Game, in hopes of restoring portions of the state back to being more productive, has been working on the “Idaho Mule Deer Initiative”. What has happened since then? Well let’s just say that they have talked a lot and accomplished very little. And although the southeast region has been producing a few 200-inch type of bucks, more than half of them have been a product of private land management.

Some of Idaho’s migration hunts found along the Snake River have started pulling a few nice bucks, and the Owyhee Mountains along the Oregon border still hold some big deer. However, the top producer for Idaho is still the limited entry units near Boise in and around the Bennett Mountains.

Although not much has been publicized, with Wyoming and Utah both losing deer to winterkill, I wouldn’t be surprise if Idaho is experiencing much of the same. The southeast corner of the state would be the most susceptible to this type of loss.

The only exciting news from Idaho is the talk of bonus points. But seeing as how Idaho is known to be slow at making changes, I wouldn’t hold my breath too long. With very few limited entry tags that hold a reasonable chance for success on mature deer, I will wait for Idaho to implement bonus points before I donate my $160 dollars a year on 1 in 50 odds of drawing.

~  MONTANA  ~

If you have good piece of private land, or an outfitter with a little ambition, Montana can still provide a place to go have fun and shoot some nice bucks. In last year’s forecast I explained the process to apply for Montana’s good limited permit areas and although I don’t have space to re-explain the Montana non-resident application fiasco, I can tell you it’s difficult and in my opinion, not worth the trouble. Montana had one good limited unit that had been a strong producer of big deer from 2000 to 2005. However, after combining an increase on tags, with late season hunts, this unit plummeting down quickly. Once again I wouldn’t waste my time and money applying for Montana unless I had an in with property or an outfitter. The Bob Marshall Wilderness in the west and the Missouri River Breaks in the east are good places to take a nice buck, but once again, you need to do you homework and find an outfitter or landowner before applying.

~  NEVADA  ~

I won’t say that hunting was poor is Nevada during 2007, but I do believe the Silver State didn’t fair well in the dry conditions. Therefore very few outstanding bucks were harvested.

However, like much of the drought-stricken southwest, Nevada will be fine in 2008. Nevada’s deer populations are managed very well and unlike some states, who tend to hide behind smokescreens and mirrors, Nevada has managed for the general health of the herd and habitat since 1978. The one major down-side of Nevada is their wild horse population. For those of you who have hunted Nevada recently, you know what I mean. From pounding natural water sources into oblivion, to destroying miles of prime mule deer country, the horses are a huge negative niche in Nevada’s mule deer belt. Although a symbol of the American Wild West, nothing good for mule deer has ever come from the presence of wild horses. Unfortunately, very little is being done to battle their ever-growing populations and the damage they have on critical mule deer habitat.

Despite still-struggling population numbers, the northwest corner of the state is still a good place with fair draw odds and a chance for a giant buck. Tags will still be at an all-time low in the north due to last year’s devastating fires that destroyed large tracts of mule deer habitat. Units 8 and 10 have showed an increase in harvest on older age class bucks over the last few years and these units can be drawn without waiting a decade.
However, if you are looking to hunt Nevada this season, you should look at the units near and around Ely and south to Caliente. Units 111-115, 221-223, 231 and 241-245, are still the place hunters with a fist full of points should be looking to draw.

If you are in search of a landowner tag, you should remember that Nevada allows those who have purchased a landowner tag to hunt the archery, muzzle loader, and rifle seasons; making Nevada landowner tags a great value if you have the time to hunt.

~  NEW MEXICO  ~

This year’s forecast for New Mexico will mimic what I said last year. Only a few units in the entire state have what I would call a good chance to hunt trophy class mule deer. Units 2B, 2C, 4, 5, and 5A have good amounts of deer and some great bucks. Migration from Colorado on the northern edge of 2B lends itself to be a great place during the late season. Units 4, 5, and 5B have a significant amount of private land and you should be looking for access before applying for these units.

To the South, units 10 and 12 have low populations but the thick pinion and junipers are home to a few great bucks. Once again, much of the best hunting can be found on private lands. The southern 2/3 of the state has produced very few quality deer and unless you have tons of scouting time you should stay to the north.

~  OREGON  ~

Each year I watch as a few great bucks are harvested in Oregon. Unfortunately, nine out of ten good bucks are harvested on private ground and are taken while they are traveling to and from agricultural ground.

On my first trip to Oregon this year, I was amazed as we drove through some great looking country for over 100 miles. However, 99% of this was private land with very limited access––a fairly common sight in the northern half of the state.

A few units with good potential for trophy class muley's are; Lookout Mountain, the Steens Mountains, Malhear River, Trout Creek, Whitehorse, and Juniper. Bowhunters should take notice of the late season archery hunts this year in some of the above mentioned units; these hunts will run from mid to late November and should hold some trophy-class potential.

~  UTAH  ~

Utah is another state that has already lost some deer to severe winter conditions. In late January, feeding programs were implemented north of Salt Lake City to Logan. Rich, Morgan, and Kamas have extremely deep snow this year and will likely endure some loss to winterkill. As of February 10th, local Utah Division of Wildlife (UDWR) biologists claim that most of the deer not utilizing the feeding sites are fairing well by sticking to the steep and wind-blown south facing slopes. They also report that a slight warming trend in February may have saved a lot of deer.

The rest of the state’s mule deer populations seem to be in good health. The south end of the state has received great moisture and unlike the problems facing the mountainous regions, the vast winter ranges of southern Utah have been embracing the much-needed moisture.

Utah has very few limited entry units for trophy deer––the Henry Mountains, Book Cliffs, Thousand Lake, Vernon, Paunsaugunt, Crawford, San Juan, and Delores Triangle are the only units that are managed as limited quota units. The Henry Mountain unit is by far the best unit in the state however, with only two non-resident tags I am wasting your time with that information. The Book Cliffs, Paunsaugunt, and San Juan are the best bet for draw odds with a great chance of success on an older age-class buck.

For you opportunists, keep in mind that Utah also has five general season units across the state. Even though there are always a few world-class bucks taken in the Central and Northern regions, the best success is generally found in the southern and southeast regions.

~  WYOMING  ~

During the 2007 season, one surprise was an increased amount of good deer harvested from the rugged mountains of western Wyoming. Not that we should be too surprised, Regions G and H have always been the best producer of trophy class mule deer in the state. And with the bonus point program now going into it’s third year, even a non-resident can draw these units about every other year.

Remember Wyoming still has the silly law that restricts nonresidents from hunting in any wilderness areas with out a guide. Yes, you can take your family camping in the same mountains legally, but draw a tag and you must hire a guide to hunt this remote country. Wyoming’s best late hunts are still units 82,118, 119, 128, and 129. Dedicated hunters are still pulling a few good deer out of the vast high desert units between Rock Springs and Baggs.

Wyoming is yet another state that has experienced heavy snow and extended cold, estimations are that deer will be lost in the Wind River Range, the Wyoming Range, and even some winterkill is expected in the high desert units south of Rock Springs in 101, and 102.

~  Forecasting A Finale  ~

A guy could go crazy trying to crunch this factor in or trying to play that factor out, but when it finally comes down to it, the 2008 season will be a great year to have a tag––especially in the southwest. It’s not too often that you are more worried about winterkill numbers as opposed to whether or not there will be enough moisture for good antler growth. Although a double-edged sword, we are definitely on the receiving end of the 2007/2008 winter and good things should come to those lucky tag holders this year! I wish you all good luck in the draw and better luck in the field. Send us your photos!